MacrolyzedA 5-minute weekly brief on the economy and markets, made for you.

All indicators

Every indicator on the site, by theme, each with its chart. Tap one to open it; this week's brief is here.

Stocks

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Tech's worst week since June broke the market's narrow leadership; record profits are the main support left.
  • The Nasdaq-100 fell 5.5% this week to 29,188 (Oct 16); tech against the whole market fell 3.6%, about three times its usual week.
  • The driver is debt: worry that AI companies reliant on borrowing cannot keep spending at multi-year-high yields; twenty big AI stocks shed over $1 trillion.
  • Corporate profits growth of 26.6% (Q2) is the best since Q2-2021 and margins of 13.1% a record; the VIX at 20.0 is anxious, not stormy.
  • The Shiller CAPE at 40.6 (September) is more than double its long-run average near 17, a level that has preceded below-average decade returns.
Nasdaq sinks more than 2% as investors raise questions about AI debt · Nvidia, AMD, Dell sink in global tech rout on AI funding worries · Nasdaq slides 2% Friday to post worst week since June
US stock market (S&P 500) 10/22/26 7,663 +13.7% 1Y Tech-heavy stocks (Nasdaq-100) 10/22/26 28,959 +15.4% 1Y Market fear gauge (VIX) 10/23/26 19.6 +19.8% 1Y US mid-size companies 10/22/26 $72.8 +12.4% 1Y US small companies 10/22/26 $138.6 +16.9% 1Y Developed-world stocks (ex-US) 10/22/26 $69.3 +16.5% 1Y Emerging-market stocks 10/22/26 $56.8 +5.9% 1Y Shiller CAPE (10-year P/E) September 2026 40.6 +5.2% 1Y Earnings yield on 10-year profits (CAPE) September 2026 2.46% -13 bps 1Y Stocks' real extra return over TIPS September 2026 Lowest since the data begins (2003) -0.47% -126 bps 1Y Private equity (listed funds) 10/22/26 $57.20 -11.2% 1Y Tech-heavy stocks against the whole market 10/22/26 169 +1.5% 1Y Corporate profits growth Q2-2026 Highest since Q2-2021 26.6% +2,745 bps 1Y Corporate profit margins Q2-2026 Highest since the data begins (1947) 13.1% +211 bps 1Y

Interest rates & bonds

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Yields sit near two-decade highs; the Fed is widely expected to hold in October after September's hike.
  • The 10-year Treasury at 5.1% (Oct 15) touched its highest since 2002 recently; the 30-year fell 17 basis points this week on safety flows from tech.
  • The Fed hiked a quarter point in September to 3.75-4%; after Chair Warsh declined to signal October, market odds of a hike fell below 15%.
  • The Fed's September projections put its rate at 4.1% through 2027; the 2-year Treasury at 4.8% (Oct 15) prices much the same path, plus some premium.
  • Credit stress (high-yield spread) widened 53 basis points over the month to 3.2% (Oct 15), still under the 3.5% calm line, as AI borrowers' bonds sold off.
Treasury yields slide as investors flee to safety of bonds amid tech rout · Warsh Boosts Market Expectations of Fed Hold in October · CoreWeave Woes Risk Shutting Down AI Junk Market: Credit Weekly
Fed's policy rate September 2026 3.8% -47 bps 1Y 3-month Treasury yield (cash rate) 10/21/26 4.2% +29 bps 1Y 10-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.1% +116 bps 1Y 30-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.4% +88 bps 1Y Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) 10/22/26 0.3% -22 bps 1Y Credit stress (high-yield spread) 10/21/26 3.3% +26 bps 1Y Broad bond fund (total US bond market) 10/22/26 $71.36 -0.9% 1Y Tax-free muni yield (national) 10/22/26 3.31% +21 bps 1Y 2-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 4.8% +136 bps 1Y 5-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.0% +139 bps 1Y 5-year real yield (TIPS) 10/21/26 2.5% +131 bps 1Y 10-year real yield (TIPS) 10/21/26 2.8% +108 bps 1Y Inflation the market expects (10-year) 10/21/26 2.37% +8 bps 1Y Term premium (10-year Treasury) 10/16/26 0.99% +55 bps 1Y Top-rated corporate bond yield (Aaa) 10/21/26 6.1% +104 bps 1Y Lower-rated corporate bond yield (Baa) 10/21/26 6.6% +91 bps 1Y Tax-free muni yield (California) 10/22/26 3.05% +14 bps 1Y Munis vs Treasuries (yield ratio) 10/22/26 59% -1,321 bps 1Y Tax-free muni yield (New York) 10/22/26 3.24% +34 bps 1Y What leveraged loans pay 10/22/26 6.44% -71 bps 1Y What AAA loan bundles pay 10/22/26 Lowest since Jun 2023 4.84% -71 bps 1Y Banks tightening business loans (net %) Q3-2026 Lowest since Q4-2024 0.0% -950 bps 1Y

Inflation

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The energy shock is pushing inflation up, and producer prices say more is in the pipeline.
  • Consumer prices run 4.0% yearly in September on this page's series; the news reports 3.7% on a differently adjusted one, with gasoline up 9.1% in the month.
  • Producer prices rose 6.3% over the year to September, the biggest gain since December 2022, and it is broader than energy: core producer prices run 5.0%.
  • Gasoline at $4.33 a gallon (Oct 12) is up 41.5% in a year; diesel's 66% rise since February feeds through supply chains.
  • The 10-year breakeven, the inflation the bond market expects, sits at 2.32% (Oct 15): markets still trust the 2% target; that trust is what the Fed defends.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket · Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022 · Wholesale prices soar at fastest pace since 2022
Inflation (PCE, yearly) August 2026 3.4% +72 bps 1Y Core inflation (ex food & energy) August 2026 3.0% +16 bps 1Y Consumer prices (CPI, yearly) September 2026 4.0% +100 bps 1Y Core consumer prices (CPI ex food & energy) September 2026 2.8% -23 bps 1Y Rent inflation (yearly) September 2026 3.0% -39 bps 1Y Gasoline price (regular, per gallon) 10/19/26 $4.28 +41.9% 1Y Producer prices (yearly) September 2026 Highest since Dec 2022 6.3% +330 bps 1Y Core producer prices September 2026 Highest since Jan 2023 5.0% +199 bps 1Y Money supply (M2) August 2026 $23,343B +5.7% 1Y

Jobs

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A low-hire, low-fire market: jobs are safe, but raises and job moves are harder to get.
  • Payrolls rose 29,000 in September against about 84,000 expected; unemployment ticked to 4.2%, partly because more people entered the labor force.
  • Jobless claims at 199,000 (Oct 10) are historically low; job openings fell 3.5% in a month to 7.1 million (August) and the quits rate is 1.9%.
  • Average hourly pay up 3.0% over the year trails consumer prices near 4%: a real pay cut, and the weakest wage growth since May 2021.
  • The recession signal (Sahm rule) reads 0.00 in September: no layoff cycle in the data yet.
Labor market faltered in September as jobs increased by just 29,000 · September jobs report shows slowdown in hiring
Unemployment rate September 2026 4.2% -20 bps 1Y Total jobs (nonfarm payrolls) September 2026 159,044 +0.3% 1Y Jobless claims (weekly) 10/17/26 194,000 -16.0% 1Y Recession signal (Sahm rule) September 2026 0.00 -0.23 1Y Job openings August 2026 7,079 +2.3% 1Y Quits rate August 2026 1.9% -10 bps 1Y Average hourly pay September 2026 $37.8 +3.0% 1Y

Economy

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Growth is running hot alongside hot inflation; recession risk reads low even as households feel squeezed.
  • GDPNow estimates 3.6% growth this quarter; services PMI at 55 and manufacturing at 54 (September) both expand; the recession-probability model reads 0.6% (August).
  • Fuel is squeezing other spending: retail sales fell 3.2% in the month to September, and the 4.1% saving rate (August) is the lowest since November 2022.
  • Consumer confidence at 52 (August) sits at deep-slump levels while output grows: households feel the prices, not the growth.
  • Credit is not the problem: banks tightening business loans reads 0.0% (Q3) and financial conditions at -0.50 (Oct 9) remain looser than average.
Wholesale inflation surged in September · Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us all
Economic growth (real GDP) Q2-2026 2.2% -180 bps 1Y Consumer confidence August 2026 52 -11.2% 1Y Retail sales September 2026 $727,033M +6.8% 1Y Services activity (ISM PMI) September 2026 55 +9.8% 1Y Manufacturing activity (ISM PMI) September 2026 54 +11.0% 1Y Household saving rate August 2026 Lowest since Nov 2022 4.1% -110 bps 1Y Financial conditions (Chicago Fed index) 10/16/26 -0.50 +0.02 1Y Growth this quarter (GDPNow estimate) Q3-2026 3.5% +3 bps 1Y Recession probability (model) August 2026 0.6% -24 bps 1Y

Housing

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A 7.4% mortgage rate, the highest since November 2023, is freezing both buyers and sellers.
  • The 30-year mortgage rate at 7.4% (Oct 15) is up 113 basis points in a year after seven straight weekly rises, following the 10-year Treasury to 5.1%.
  • Supply at 4.8 months (September) sits in the balanced 4-6 range, but pending sales fell year over year and sellers are cutting prices at a four-year-high rate.
  • Homes started fell 2.6% in the month to August; housing is the most rate-sensitive corner of the economy and the first to crack.
  • Caveat the home-price indices are July data, up 2.5% in a year nationally, and predate the latest rate surge; what 7.4% does to prices is not visible yet.
US Mortgage Rates Unchanged at 7.4% · High mortgage rates are deepening a 'K-shaped' housing market
30-year mortgage rate 10/22/26 7.3% +113 bps 1Y US home prices (20 cities) July 2026 346 +2.5% 1Y Real estate funds (REITs) 10/22/26 $92.65 +4.3% 1Y Homes started September 2026 1,221 -7.4% 1Y Building permits September 2026 1,400 -3.0% 1Y Homes for sale (months of supply) September 2026 4.8 +6.7% 1Y San Francisco home prices July 2026 Highest since Jul 2022 363 +3.5% 1Y

Dollar & currencies

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The dollar sits near an 18-month high, a headwind for international holdings in dollar terms.
  • The dollar index at 101.84 (Oct 16) is up 1.6% in a month on Fed repricing; it slipped late in the week as October-hike odds fell.
  • The euro at $1.12 is down 4.3% this year; no euro-specific driver surfaced this week beyond rate differentials.
  • The AI rout hit Asian currencies, adding to emerging-market weakness; global rate hikes elsewhere cap the dollar's edge from here.
Gold eases on firm dollar · AI Selloff Drags Emerging Stocks Down · Fed's Warsh sees AI boosting productivity but gives no signal on next rate hike
US dollar strength (index) 10/23/26 101.73 +2.8% 1Y Euro (dollars per euro) 10/23/26 $1.12 -3.6% 1Y British pound (dollars per pound) 10/23/26 $1.34 +0.4% 1Y Japanese yen (dollars per yen) 10/23/26 $0.0064 -2.6% 1Y

Commodities

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Oil near $100 is the year's defining move; broad commodities are the inflation hedge that has worked.
  • Oil (WTI) at $99.0 (Oct 16) is up 72% this year; attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent to $110 this week, a five-month high.
  • The broad commodities fund at $33.74 (Oct 16) is the highest since July 2008, up 57.7% in a year, with a low link to stocks.
  • Gold at $4,181 (Oct 16) is down 5.5% in a month: it pays no interest, so higher real yields raise its cost of ownership.
  • Caveat one bank estimates about $25 of the oil price is war risk premium and forecasts lower prices into 2027; a de-escalation would unwind much of this.
Brent oil touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks · Oil Is Getting Through From The Middle East · Gold gains on softer dollar, but heads for weekly fall
Gold price 10/23/26 $4,037 -2.4% 1Y Oil price (WTI) 10/23/26 $101.2 +64.5% 1Y Broad commodities fund 10/22/26 $33.57 +51.9% 1Y Copper price 10/23/26 $6.44 +26.4% 1Y

Crypto

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Crypto is trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset, not a hedge against stocks.
  • Bitcoin at $82,027 (Oct 18) is down 24.5% in a year; its link to US stocks reads 0.47, close to one more bet on stocks.
  • The hot CPI knocked prices mid-week: when safe yields rise, money that pays nothing to hold gets left behind.
  • Ethereum at $2,421 (Oct 18) is down 39.3% over the year; the slide long predates this week and has no single October catalyst.
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Monday, October 12, 2026 · Current price of Ethereum for October 15, 2026
Bitcoin price 10/23/26 $81,522 -26.6% 1Y Ethereum price 10/23/26 $2,393 -39.2% 1Y

Government debt

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A near-$2 trillion deficit and record interest costs are pressing long-term yields up from the supply side.
  • The fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.99 trillion, up about 12% in a year; net interest topped $1 trillion, 3.2% of GDP, the highest since 1991.
  • Federal debt stands at 123% of GDP (Q1-2026), the highest since Q1-2021; over $10 trillion of it rolls over within 12 months at today's rates.
  • The term premium at 1.07% (Oct 9), up 60 basis points in a year, is the bond market charging for this: more issuance, more compensation demanded.
  • Households are the calm corner: credit-card delinquencies eased to 2.9% (Q2) and the debt burden is flat at 11.1% of take-home income.
US Posts $1.99 Trillion Budget Gap for 2026 as Spending Climbs · A $2 trillion deficit looms over the midterms · US debt interest costs hit $3 billion a day
Federal debt (% of GDP) Q1-2026 Highest since Q1-2021 123% +205 bps 1Y Household debt burden Q2-2026 Lowest since Q1-2025 11.1% -1 bps 1Y Interest on the federal debt (% of GDP) 2025 Highest since 1991 3.2% +15 bps 1Y Federal deficit (% of GDP) 2025 Least negative since 2022 -5.8% +43 bps 1Y Credit-card delinquencies Q2-2026 Lowest since Q2-2023 2.9% -19 bps 1Y