MacrolyzedA 5-minute weekly brief on the economy and markets, made for you.

Asset classes

The fifteen classes the brief calls favored, pressured or mixed: what each returned, what the managers expect, how far it fell and how much it moves with stocks. Tap one for the details.

Pressured US large-cap stocks Priced below safe real bonds; AI leaders wobbling +15.0% past year5.8% expected Fell at worst -8.9% Moves with US stocks? The benchmark
S&P 500, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+15.0%, read from an S&P 500 index fund, dividends included.
Expected a year, long term
5.8% (4 managers, -5.0 to 6.7), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 6.7% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025
  • Vanguard 4.2 to 6.2% a year, 10 years, as of Jun 30, 2026 (all US stocks)
  • AQR 6.3% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 3.9% after inflation)
  • GMO -5.0% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published -7.4% after inflation)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-8.9%, from its high on Jan 27, 2026 to its low on Mar 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
This is the S&P 500, the benchmark the others are measured against.
Pressured US small & mid-cap stocks Rate-sensitive; small caps down 6.6% over the quarter +12.4% past year2.0% expected Fell at worst -8.8% Moves with US stocks? High
Mid caps, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+12.4%, read from a fund of mid-size US companies.
Expected a year, long term
2.0% (2 managers, -3.4 to 7.5), before inflation:
  • AQR 7.5% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 5.1% after inflation; US small)
  • GMO -3.4% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published -5.8% after inflation; US small)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-8.8%, from its high on Feb 20, 2026 to its low on Mar 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
High: a correlation of 0.81 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed International developed stocks Cheaper than US stocks, but a rising dollar bites +16.5% past year6.4% expected Fell at worst -11.6% Moves with US stocks? High
Int'l developed, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+16.5%, read from a fund of developed-market stocks outside the US.
Expected a year, long term
6.4% (4 managers, 0.9 to 7.5), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 7.5% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (EAFE, in dollars)
  • Vanguard 4.5 to 6.5% a year, 10 years, as of Jun 30, 2026
  • AQR 7.3% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 4.9% after inflation; developed ex-US)
  • GMO 0.9% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published -1.5% after inflation; international large)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-11.6%, from its high on Feb 26, 2026 to its low on Mar 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
High: a correlation of 0.81 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Emerging-market stocks AI rout and strong dollar offset cheaper valuations +5.9% past year5.2% expected Fell at worst -11.2% Moves with US stocks? High
Emerging mkts, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+5.9%, read from a fund of emerging-market stocks.
Expected a year, long term
5.2% (4 managers, 2.0 to 7.8), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 7.8% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (in dollars)
  • Vanguard 2.0 to 4.0% a year, 10 years, as of Jun 30, 2026
  • AQR 7.5% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 5.1% after inflation)
  • GMO 2.3% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published -0.1% after inflation)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-11.2%, from its high on Feb 25, 2026 to its low on Mar 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
High: a correlation of 0.82 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Favored Cash & short-term Treasuries Pays 4.3%, above inflation, with no price risk +3.7% past year3.7% expected Fell at worst 0.0% Moves with US stocks? Low
T-bill fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+3.7%, read from a Treasury bill fund, which pays 4.2% (the 3-month Treasury yield).
Expected a year, long term
3.7% (3 managers, 3.1 to 3.9), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 3.1% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (cash)
  • AQR 3.7% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 1.3% after inflation; US cash)
  • GMO 3.9% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published 1.5% after inflation; US cash)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
0.0%, from its high on Jun 1, 2026 to its low on Jun 2, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Low: a correlation of -0.04 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Long-term Treasuries 5.4% yield, but term premium and inflation risk -6.5% past year5.0% expected Fell at worst -12.5% Moves with US stocks? Low
Long Treasury fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-6.5%, read from a fund of Treasuries maturing in 20 years or more, which pays 5.4% (the 30-year Treasury yield).
Expected a year, long term
5.0% (2 managers, 4.8 to 5.2), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 5.2% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (20 years and over)
  • AQR 4.8% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 2.4% after inflation; the 10-year Treasury)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-12.5%, from its high on Feb 27, 2026 to its low on Oct 5, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Low: a correlation of 0.29 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Favored TIPS 2.8% guaranteed above inflation, near two-decade highs -0.8% past year5.1% expected Fell at worst -3.9% Moves with US stocks? Low
TIPS fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-0.8%, read from a TIPS fund, which pays 2.8% (the 10-year real yield (TIPS)).
Expected a year, long term
5.1% (GMO), before inflation:
  • GMO 5.1% a year, 7 years, as of Aug 31, 2026 (published 2.7% after inflation; US inflation-linked bonds)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-3.9%, from its high on May 1, 2026 to its low on Sep 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Low: a correlation of 0.26 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Corporate bonds Baa yields 6.5%, but credit spreads are widening -2.9% past year5.2% expected Fell at worst -6.0% Moves with US stocks? Medium
Corporate bond fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-2.9%, read from a fund of investment-grade corporate bonds, which pays 6.6% (the Baa corporate bond yield).
Expected a year, long term
5.2% (2 managers agree), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 5.2% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (investment grade; high yield 6.1)
  • AQR 5.2% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 2.8% after inflation; investment grade; high yield 2.7)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-6.0%, from its high on Feb 26, 2026 to its low on Sep 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Medium: a correlation of 0.47 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Favored Municipal bonds 3.34% tax-free beats Treasuries after tax in top brackets -0.9% past yearno forecast Fell at worst -6.3% Moves with US stocks? Medium
Muni fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-0.9%, read from a national muni bond fund, which pays 3.31% (the national muni yield).
Expected a year, long term
No large manager publishes a figure for this class; the page does not estimate one.
Biggest drop
-6.3%, from its high on Jul 6, 2026 to its low on Sep 29, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Medium: a correlation of 0.35 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Pressured Private equity Listed funds down 14.5% this year; borrowing costs high -11.2% past year8.4% expected Fell at worst -22.1% Moves with US stocks? High
Private equity, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-11.2%, read from a fund of listed private-equity firms.
Expected a year, long term
8.4% (2 managers, 6.6 to 10.2), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 10.2% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025
  • AQR 6.6% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 4.2% after inflation; US buyouts, as of Sep 30, 2025)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-22.1%, from its high on Jan 16, 2026 to its low on Mar 27, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
High: a correlation of 0.68 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Private credit Loans pay two points over cash as credit risk rises +3.9% past year6.3% expected Fell at worst -3.1% Moves with US stocks? Medium
Loan fund, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+3.9%, read from a leveraged-loan fund, which pays 6.44% (the leveraged-loan yield).
Expected a year, long term
6.3% (2 managers, 5.0 to 7.7), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 7.7% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (direct lending)
  • AQR 5.0% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 2.6% after inflation)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-3.1%, from its high on Jan 9, 2026 to its low on Feb 27, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Medium: a correlation of 0.54 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Pressured Real estate & real assets REITs down 7.5% this quarter as long yields climb +4.3% past year6.8% expected Fell at worst -11.4% Moves with US stocks? Low
REITs, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+4.3%, read from a fund of real estate investment trusts (REITs).
Expected a year, long term
6.8% (2 managers, 5.5 to 8.2), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 8.2% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025 (US core real estate)
  • AQR 5.5% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 3.1% after inflation; unlevered US private real estate, as of Sep 30, 2025)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-11.4%, from its high on Jul 28, 2026 to its low on Oct 7, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Low: a correlation of 0.27 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Gold Higher real yields weigh; down 5.5% this month -2.4% past year5.5% expected Fell at worst -24.9% Moves with US stocks? Medium
Gold, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-2.4%, read from the gold price.
Expected a year, long term
5.5% (J.P. Morgan), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 5.5% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025
Biggest drop
-24.9%, from its high on Jan 29, 2026 to its low on Jul 16, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Medium: a correlation of 0.31 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Mixed Commodities Up 58% in a year; oil shock could reverse +51.9% past year5.7% expected Fell at worst -16.5% Moves with US stocks? Low
Commodities, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
+51.9%, read from a broad commodities fund, mostly energy.
Expected a year, long term
5.7% (2 managers, 4.6 to 6.7), before inflation:
  • J.P. Morgan 4.6% a year, 10 to 15 years, as of Sep 30, 2025
  • AQR 6.7% a year, 5 to 10 years, as of Dec 31, 2025 (published 4.3% after inflation; commodity futures)
A figure published after inflation is shown with the market’s expected inflation added: the 10-year breakeven, 2.4% on Oct 21, 2026.
Biggest drop
-16.5%, from its high on May 12, 2026 to its low on Jun 24, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Low: a correlation of -0.24 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.
Pressured Crypto Down 24.5% in a year, trading with stocks, not hedging -26.6% past yearno forecast Fell at worst -48.8% Moves with US stocks? Medium
Bitcoin, one year to Oct 23, 2026, indexed to 100.
Past year
-26.6%, read from the bitcoin price.
Expected a year, long term
No large manager publishes a figure for this class; the page does not estimate one.
Biggest drop
-48.8%, from its high on Oct 26, 2025 to its low on Jun 30, 2026.
Moves with US stocks
Medium: a correlation of 0.48 with the S&P 500 over the past year, where 1 moves in lockstep, 0 is unrelated and below 0 moves the other way.

Past year: the total return of the fund or index that stands for the class. Expected: the median of what fund managers expect a year over a longer-term horizon. Biggest drop: the fall from the highest point in the past year to the lowest after it. Moves with US stocks: how closely its daily moves followed the S&P 500’s over the past year.

Figures to Oct 23, 2026; the calls are from the brief of Oct 18, 2026.