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Every indicator on the site, by theme, each with its chart. Tap one to open it; this week's brief is here.

Indicator As of Latest 1Y change vs avg History This week
US stock market (S&P 500) Stocks 10/22/26 7,663 ▲ +13.7% +82.6%
Tech's worst week since June broke the market's narrow leadership; record profits are the main support left.
  • The Nasdaq-100 fell 5.5% this week to 29,188 (Oct 16); tech against the whole market fell 3.6%, about three times its usual week.
  • The driver is debt: worry that AI companies reliant on borrowing cannot keep spending at multi-year-high yields; twenty big AI stocks shed over $1 trillion.
  • Corporate profits growth of 26.6% (Q2) is the best since Q2-2021 and margins of 13.1% a record; the VIX at 20.0 is anxious, not stormy.
  • The Shiller CAPE at 40.6 (September) is more than double its long-run average near 17, a level that has preceded below-average decade returns.
Tech-heavy stocks (Nasdaq-100) Stocks 10/22/26 28,959 ▲ +15.4% +110.9%
Market fear gauge (VIX) Stocks 10/23/26 19.6 ▲ +19.8% +5.1%
US mid-size companies Stocks 10/22/26 $72.8 ▲ +12.4% +57.4%
US small companies Stocks 10/22/26 $138.6 ▲ +16.9% +54.6%
Developed-world stocks (ex-US) Stocks 10/22/26 $69.3 ▲ +16.5% +66.2%
Emerging-market stocks Stocks 10/22/26 $56.8 ▲ +5.9% +43.6%
Shiller CAPE (10-year P/E) Stocks September 2026 40.6 ▲ +5.2% +24.8%
Earnings yield on 10-year profits (CAPE) Stocks September 2026 2.46% ▼ -13 bps -66 bps
Stocks' real extra return over TIPS Stocks Lowest since the data begins (2003) September 2026 -0.47% ▼ -126 bps -283 bps
Private equity (listed funds) Stocks 10/22/26 $57.20 ▼ -11.2% +22.4%
Tech-heavy stocks against the whole market Stocks 10/22/26 169 ▲ +1.5% +21.3%
Corporate profits growth Stocks Highest since Q2-2021 Q2-2026 26.6% ▲ +2,745 bps +1,880 bps
Corporate profit margins Stocks Highest since the data begins (1947) Q2-2026 13.1% ▲ +211 bps +226 bps
Fed's policy rate Interest rates & bonds September 2026 3.8% ▼ -47 bps +134 bps
Yields sit near two-decade highs; the Fed is widely expected to hold in October after September's hike.
  • The 10-year Treasury at 5.1% (Oct 15) touched its highest since 2002 recently; the 30-year fell 17 basis points this week on safety flows from tech.
  • The Fed hiked a quarter point in September to 3.75-4%; after Chair Warsh declined to signal October, market odds of a hike fell below 15%.
  • The Fed's September projections put its rate at 4.1% through 2027; the 2-year Treasury at 4.8% (Oct 15) prices much the same path, plus some premium.
  • Credit stress (high-yield spread) widened 53 basis points over the month to 3.2% (Oct 15), still under the 3.5% calm line, as AI borrowers' bonds sold off.
3-month Treasury yield (cash rate) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 4.2% ▲ +29 bps +171 bps
10-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.1% ▲ +116 bps +221 bps
30-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.4% ▲ +88 bps +210 bps
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 0.3% ▼ -22 bps -3 bps
Credit stress (high-yield spread) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 3.3% ▲ +26 bps +14 bps
Broad bond fund (total US bond market) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 $71.36 ▼ -0.9% +6.8%
Tax-free muni yield (national) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.31% ▲ +21 bps +99 bps
2-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 4.8% ▲ +136 bps +223 bps
5-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.0% ▲ +139 bps +227 bps
5-year real yield (TIPS) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.5% ▲ +131 bps +198 bps
10-year real yield (TIPS) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.8% ▲ +108 bps +196 bps
Inflation the market expects (10-year) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.37% ▲ +8 bps +25 bps
Term premium (10-year Treasury) Interest rates & bonds 10/16/26 0.99% ▲ +55 bps +83 bps
Top-rated corporate bond yield (Aaa) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 6.1% ▲ +104 bps +202 bps
Lower-rated corporate bond yield (Baa) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 6.6% ▲ +91 bps +165 bps
Tax-free muni yield (California) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.05% ▲ +14 bps +92 bps
Munis vs Treasuries (yield ratio) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 59% ▼ -1,321 bps -2,643 bps
Tax-free muni yield (New York) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.24% ▲ +34 bps +92 bps
What leveraged loans pay Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 6.44% ▼ -71 bps +108 bps
What AAA loan bundles pay Interest rates & bonds Lowest since Jun 2023 10/22/26 4.84% ▼ -71 bps +108 bps
Banks tightening business loans (net %) Interest rates & bonds Lowest since Q4-2024 Q3-2026 0.0% ▼ -950 bps -874 bps
Inflation (PCE, yearly) Inflation August 2026 3.4% ▲ +72 bps +57 bps
The energy shock is pushing inflation up, and producer prices say more is in the pipeline.
  • Consumer prices run 4.0% yearly in September on this page's series; the news reports 3.7% on a differently adjusted one, with gasoline up 9.1% in the month.
  • Producer prices rose 6.3% over the year to September, the biggest gain since December 2022, and it is broader than energy: core producer prices run 5.0%.
  • Gasoline at $4.33 a gallon (Oct 12) is up 41.5% in a year; diesel's 66% rise since February feeds through supply chains.
  • The 10-year breakeven, the inflation the bond market expects, sits at 2.32% (Oct 15): markets still trust the 2% target; that trust is what the Fed defends.
Core inflation (ex food & energy) Inflation August 2026 3.0% ▲ +16 bps +23 bps
Consumer prices (CPI, yearly) Inflation September 2026 4.0% ▲ +100 bps +71 bps
Core consumer prices (CPI ex food & energy) Inflation September 2026 2.8% ▼ -23 bps -35 bps
Rent inflation (yearly) Inflation September 2026 3.0% ▼ -39 bps -127 bps
Gasoline price (regular, per gallon) Inflation 10/19/26 $4.28 ▲ +41.9% +41.3%
Producer prices (yearly) Inflation Highest since Dec 2022 September 2026 6.3% ▲ +330 bps +288 bps
Core producer prices Inflation Highest since Jan 2023 September 2026 5.0% ▲ +199 bps +162 bps
Money supply (M2) Inflation August 2026 $23,343B ▲ +5.7% +26.0%
Unemployment rate Jobs September 2026 4.2% ▼ -20 bps -34 bps
A low-hire, low-fire market: jobs are safe, but raises and job moves are harder to get.
  • Payrolls rose 29,000 in September against about 84,000 expected; unemployment ticked to 4.2%, partly because more people entered the labor force.
  • Jobless claims at 199,000 (Oct 10) are historically low; job openings fell 3.5% in a month to 7.1 million (August) and the quits rate is 1.9%.
  • Average hourly pay up 3.0% over the year trails consumer prices near 4%: a real pay cut, and the weakest wage growth since May 2021.
  • The recession signal (Sahm rule) reads 0.00 in September: no layoff cycle in the data yet.
Total jobs (nonfarm payrolls) Jobs September 2026 159,044 +0.3% +5.1%
Jobless claims (weekly) Jobs 10/17/26 194,000 ▼ -16.0% -46.2%
Recession signal (Sahm rule) Jobs September 2026 0.00 ▼ -0.23 -0.57
Job openings Jobs August 2026 7,079 ▲ +2.3% -9.9%
Quits rate Jobs August 2026 1.9% ▼ -10 bps -38 bps
Average hourly pay Jobs September 2026 $37.8 ▲ +3.0% +21.0%
Economic growth (real GDP) Economy Q2-2026 2.2% ▼ -180 bps -53 bps
Growth is running hot alongside hot inflation; recession risk reads low even as households feel squeezed.
  • GDPNow estimates 3.6% growth this quarter; services PMI at 55 and manufacturing at 54 (September) both expand; the recession-probability model reads 0.6% (August).
  • Fuel is squeezing other spending: retail sales fell 3.2% in the month to September, and the 4.1% saving rate (August) is the lowest since November 2022.
  • Consumer confidence at 52 (August) sits at deep-slump levels while output grows: households feel the prices, not the growth.
  • Credit is not the problem: banks tightening business loans reads 0.0% (Q3) and financial conditions at -0.50 (Oct 9) remain looser than average.
Consumer confidence Economy August 2026 52 ▼ -11.2% -33.2%
Retail sales Economy September 2026 $727,033M ▲ +6.8% +23.2%
Services activity (ISM PMI) Economy September 2026 55 ▲ +9.8% -1.3%
Manufacturing activity (ISM PMI) Economy September 2026 54 ▲ +11.0% +2.5%
Household saving rate Economy Lowest since Nov 2022 August 2026 4.1% ▼ -110 bps -312 bps
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed index) Economy 10/16/26 -0.50 +0.02 -0.04
Growth this quarter (GDPNow estimate) Economy Q3-2026 3.5% +3 bps +93 bps
Recession probability (model) Economy August 2026 0.6% ▼ -24 bps -145 bps
30-year mortgage rate Housing 10/22/26 7.3% ▲ +113 bps +232 bps
A 7.4% mortgage rate, the highest since November 2023, is freezing both buyers and sellers.
  • The 30-year mortgage rate at 7.4% (Oct 15) is up 113 basis points in a year after seven straight weekly rises, following the 10-year Treasury to 5.1%.
  • Supply at 4.8 months (September) sits in the balanced 4-6 range, but pending sales fell year over year and sellers are cutting prices at a four-year-high rate.
  • Homes started fell 2.6% in the month to August; housing is the most rate-sensitive corner of the economy and the first to crack.
  • Caveat the home-price indices are July data, up 2.5% in a year nationally, and predate the latest rate surge; what 7.4% does to prices is not visible yet.
US home prices (20 cities) Housing July 2026 346 ▲ +2.5% +29.0%
Real estate funds (REITs) Housing 10/22/26 $92.65 ▲ +4.3% +26.3%
Homes started Housing September 2026 1,221 ▼ -7.4% -11.2%
Building permits Housing September 2026 1,400 ▼ -3.0% -4.7%
Homes for sale (months of supply) Housing September 2026 4.8 ▲ +6.7% +10.9%
San Francisco home prices Housing Highest since Jul 2022 July 2026 363 ▲ +3.5% +17.3%
US dollar strength (index) Dollar & currencies 10/23/26 101.73 ▲ +2.8% +3.0%
The dollar sits near an 18-month high, a headwind for international holdings in dollar terms.
  • The dollar index at 101.84 (Oct 16) is up 1.6% in a month on Fed repricing; it slipped late in the week as October-hike odds fell.
  • The euro at $1.12 is down 4.3% this year; no euro-specific driver surfaced this week beyond rate differentials.
  • The AI rout hit Asian currencies, adding to emerging-market weakness; global rate hikes elsewhere cap the dollar's edge from here.
Euro (dollars per euro) Dollar & currencies 10/23/26 $1.12 ▼ -3.6% -0.4%
British pound (dollars per pound) Dollar & currencies 10/23/26 $1.34 +0.4% +3.2%
Japanese yen (dollars per yen) Dollar & currencies 10/23/26 $0.0064 ▼ -2.6% -20.7%
Gold price Commodities 10/23/26 $4,037 ▼ -2.4% +91.6%
Oil near $100 is the year's defining move; broad commodities are the inflation hedge that has worked.
  • Oil (WTI) at $99.0 (Oct 16) is up 72% this year; attacks near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent to $110 this week, a five-month high.
  • The broad commodities fund at $33.74 (Oct 16) is the highest since July 2008, up 57.7% in a year, with a low link to stocks.
  • Gold at $4,181 (Oct 16) is down 5.5% in a month: it pays no interest, so higher real yields raise its cost of ownership.
  • Caveat one bank estimates about $25 of the oil price is war risk premium and forecasts lower prices into 2027; a de-escalation would unwind much of this.
Oil price (WTI) Commodities 10/23/26 $101.2 ▲ +64.5% +50.7%
Broad commodities fund Commodities 10/22/26 $33.57 ▲ +51.9% +87.2%
Copper price Commodities 10/23/26 $6.44 ▲ +26.4% +69.7%
Bitcoin price Crypto 10/23/26 $81,522 ▼ -26.6% +124.5%
Crypto is trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset, not a hedge against stocks.
  • Bitcoin at $82,027 (Oct 18) is down 24.5% in a year; its link to US stocks reads 0.47, close to one more bet on stocks.
  • The hot CPI knocked prices mid-week: when safe yields rise, money that pays nothing to hold gets left behind.
  • Ethereum at $2,421 (Oct 18) is down 39.3% over the year; the slide long predates this week and has no single October catalyst.
Ethereum price Crypto 10/23/26 $2,393 ▼ -39.2% +38.0%
Federal debt (% of GDP) Government debt Highest since Q1-2021 Q1-2026 123% ▲ +205 bps +908 bps
A near-$2 trillion deficit and record interest costs are pressing long-term yields up from the supply side.
  • The fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.99 trillion, up about 12% in a year; net interest topped $1 trillion, 3.2% of GDP, the highest since 1991.
  • Federal debt stands at 123% of GDP (Q1-2026), the highest since Q1-2021; over $10 trillion of it rolls over within 12 months at today's rates.
  • The term premium at 1.07% (Oct 9), up 60 basis points in a year, is the bond market charging for this: more issuance, more compensation demanded.
  • Households are the calm corner: credit-card delinquencies eased to 2.9% (Q2) and the debt burden is flat at 11.1% of take-home income.
Household debt burden Government debt Lowest since Q1-2025 Q2-2026 11.1% -1 bps +6 bps
Interest on the federal debt (% of GDP) Government debt Highest since 1991 2025 3.2% ▲ +15 bps +141 bps
Federal deficit (% of GDP) Government debt Least negative since 2022 2025 -5.8% ▲ +43 bps +33 bps
Credit-card delinquencies Government debt Lowest since Q2-2023 Q2-2026 2.9% ▼ -19 bps +36 bps