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Interest rates & bonds

Chart
Yields sit near two-decade highs; the Fed is widely expected to hold in October after September's hike.
  • The 10-year Treasury at 5.1% (Oct 15) touched its highest since 2002 recently; the 30-year fell 17 basis points this week on safety flows from tech.
  • The Fed hiked a quarter point in September to 3.75-4%; after Chair Warsh declined to signal October, market odds of a hike fell below 15%.
  • The Fed's September projections put its rate at 4.1% through 2027; the 2-year Treasury at 4.8% (Oct 15) prices much the same path, plus some premium.
  • Credit stress (high-yield spread) widened 53 basis points over the month to 3.2% (Oct 15), still under the 3.5% calm line, as AI borrowers' bonds sold off.
Treasury yields slide as investors flee to safety of bonds amid tech rout · Warsh Boosts Market Expectations of Fed Hold in October · CoreWeave Woes Risk Shutting Down AI Junk Market: Credit Weekly
Fed's policy rate September 2026 3.8% -47 bps 1Y 3-month Treasury yield (cash rate) 10/21/26 4.2% +29 bps 1Y 10-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.1% +116 bps 1Y 30-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.4% +88 bps 1Y Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) 10/22/26 0.3% -22 bps 1Y Credit stress (high-yield spread) 10/21/26 3.3% +26 bps 1Y Broad bond fund (total US bond market) 10/22/26 $71.36 -0.9% 1Y Tax-free muni yield (national) 10/22/26 3.31% +21 bps 1Y 2-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 4.8% +136 bps 1Y 5-year Treasury yield 10/21/26 5.0% +139 bps 1Y 5-year real yield (TIPS) 10/21/26 2.5% +131 bps 1Y 10-year real yield (TIPS) 10/21/26 2.8% +108 bps 1Y Inflation the market expects (10-year) 10/21/26 2.37% +8 bps 1Y Term premium (10-year Treasury) 10/16/26 0.99% +55 bps 1Y Top-rated corporate bond yield (Aaa) 10/21/26 6.1% +104 bps 1Y Lower-rated corporate bond yield (Baa) 10/21/26 6.6% +91 bps 1Y Tax-free muni yield (California) 10/22/26 3.05% +14 bps 1Y Munis vs Treasuries (yield ratio) 10/22/26 59% -1,321 bps 1Y Tax-free muni yield (New York) 10/22/26 3.24% +34 bps 1Y What leveraged loans pay 10/22/26 6.44% -71 bps 1Y What AAA loan bundles pay 10/22/26 Lowest since Jun 2023 4.84% -71 bps 1Y Banks tightening business loans (net %) Q3-2026 Lowest since Q4-2024 0.0% -950 bps 1Y