MacrolyzedA 5-minute weekly brief on the economy and markets, made for you.

All indicators

Every indicator on the site, by theme, each with its chart. Tap one to open it; this week's brief is here.

Indicator As of Latest 1Y change vs avg History This week
Fed's policy rate Interest rates & bonds September 2026 3.8% ▼ -47 bps -77 bps
Yields sit near two-decade highs; the Fed is widely expected to hold in October after September's hike.
  • The 10-year Treasury at 5.1% (Oct 15) touched its highest since 2002 recently; the 30-year fell 17 basis points this week on safety flows from tech.
  • The Fed hiked a quarter point in September to 3.75-4%; after Chair Warsh declined to signal October, market odds of a hike fell below 15%.
  • The Fed's September projections put its rate at 4.1% through 2027; the 2-year Treasury at 4.8% (Oct 15) prices much the same path, plus some premium.
  • Credit stress (high-yield spread) widened 53 basis points over the month to 3.2% (Oct 15), still under the 3.5% calm line, as AI borrowers' bonds sold off.
3-month Treasury yield (cash rate) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 4.2% ▲ +29 bps -26 bps
10-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.1% ▲ +116 bps +80 bps
30-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.4% ▲ +88 bps +71 bps
Yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 0.3% ▼ -22 bps +10 bps
Credit stress (high-yield spread) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 3.3% ▲ +26 bps +19 bps
Broad bond fund (total US bond market) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 $71.36 ▼ -0.9% +3.6%
Tax-free muni yield (national) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.31% ▲ +21 bps +30 bps
2-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 4.8% ▲ +136 bps +70 bps
5-year Treasury yield Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 5.0% ▲ +139 bps +87 bps
5-year real yield (TIPS) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.5% ▲ +131 bps +82 bps
10-year real yield (TIPS) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.8% ▲ +108 bps +74 bps
Inflation the market expects (10-year) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 2.37% ▲ +8 bps +6 bps
Term premium (10-year Treasury) Interest rates & bonds 10/16/26 0.99% ▲ +55 bps +48 bps
Top-rated corporate bond yield (Aaa) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 6.1% ▲ +104 bps +79 bps
Lower-rated corporate bond yield (Baa) Interest rates & bonds 10/21/26 6.6% ▲ +91 bps +61 bps
Tax-free muni yield (California) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.05% ▲ +14 bps +29 bps
Munis vs Treasuries (yield ratio) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 59% ▼ -1,321 bps -455 bps
Tax-free muni yield (New York) Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 3.24% ▲ +34 bps +44 bps
What leveraged loans pay Interest rates & bonds 10/22/26 6.44% ▼ -71 bps -142 bps
What AAA loan bundles pay Interest rates & bonds Lowest since Jun 2023 10/22/26 4.84% ▼ -71 bps -97 bps
Banks tightening business loans (net %) Interest rates & bonds Lowest since Q4-2024 Q3-2026 0.0% ▼ -950 bps -1,473 bps