All indicators
Every indicator on the site, by theme, each with its chart. Tap one to open it; this week's brief is here.
Growth is running hot alongside hot inflation; recession risk reads low even as households feel squeezed.
- GDPNow estimates 3.6% growth this quarter; services PMI at 55 and manufacturing at 54 (September) both expand; the recession-probability model reads 0.6% (August).
- Fuel is squeezing other spending: retail sales fell 3.2% in the month to September, and the 4.1% saving rate (August) is the lowest since November 2022.
- Consumer confidence at 52 (August) sits at deep-slump levels while output grows: households feel the prices, not the growth.
- Credit is not the problem: banks tightening business loans reads 0.0% (Q3) and financial conditions at -0.50 (Oct 9) remain looser than average.
Economic growth (real GDP)
Q2-2026
2.2%
-180 bps
1Y
Consumer confidence
August 2026
52
-11.2%
1Y
Retail sales
September 2026
$727,033M
+6.8%
1Y
Services activity (ISM PMI)
September 2026
55
+9.8%
1Y
Manufacturing activity (ISM PMI)
September 2026
54
+11.0%
1Y
Household saving rate
August 2026
Lowest since Nov 2022
4.1%
-110 bps
1Y
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed index)
10/16/26
-0.50
+0.02
1Y
Growth this quarter (GDPNow estimate)
Q3-2026
3.5%
+3 bps
1Y
Recession probability (model)
August 2026
0.6%
-24 bps
1Y