All indicators

Every indicator on the site, by theme, each with its chart. Tap one to open it; this week's brief is here.

Indicator	As of	Latest	1Y change	vs avg	This week
Economic growth (real GDP) Economy	Q2-2026	2.2%	▼ -180 bps	-53 bps	Growth is running hot alongside hot inflation; recession risk reads low even as households feel squeezed. GDPNow estimates 3.6% growth this quarter; services PMI at 55 and manufacturing at 54 (September) both expand; the recession-probability model reads 0.6% (August). Fuel is squeezing other spending: retail sales fell 3.2% in the month to September, and the 4.1% saving rate (August) is the lowest since November 2022. Consumer confidence at 52 (August) sits at deep-slump levels while output grows: households feel the prices, not the growth. Credit is not the problem: banks tightening business loans reads 0.0% (Q3) and financial conditions at -0.50 (Oct 9) remain looser than average.
Consumer confidence Economy	August 2026	52	▼ -11.2%	-33.2%
Retail sales Economy	September 2026	$727,033M	▲ +6.8%	+23.2%
Services activity (ISM PMI) Economy	September 2026	55	▲ +9.8%	-1.3%
Manufacturing activity (ISM PMI) Economy	September 2026	54	▲ +11.0%	+2.5%
Household saving rate Economy Lowest since Nov 2022	August 2026	4.1%	▼ -110 bps	-312 bps
Financial conditions (Chicago Fed index) Economy	10/16/26	-0.50	+0.02	-0.04
Growth this quarter (GDPNow estimate) Economy	Q3-2026	3.5%	+3 bps	+93 bps
Recession probability (model) Economy	August 2026	0.6%	▼ -24 bps	-145 bps