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Government debt

Chart
A near-$2 trillion deficit and record interest costs are pressing long-term yields up from the supply side.
  • The fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.99 trillion, up about 12% in a year; net interest topped $1 trillion, 3.2% of GDP, the highest since 1991.
  • Federal debt stands at 123% of GDP (Q1-2026), the highest since Q1-2021; over $10 trillion of it rolls over within 12 months at today's rates.
  • The term premium at 1.07% (Oct 9), up 60 basis points in a year, is the bond market charging for this: more issuance, more compensation demanded.
  • Households are the calm corner: credit-card delinquencies eased to 2.9% (Q2) and the debt burden is flat at 11.1% of take-home income.
US Posts $1.99 Trillion Budget Gap for 2026 as Spending Climbs · A $2 trillion deficit looms over the midterms · US debt interest costs hit $3 billion a day
Federal debt (% of GDP) Q1-2026 Highest since Q1-2021 123% +205 bps 1Y Household debt burden Q2-2026 Lowest since Q1-2025 11.1% -1 bps 1Y Interest on the federal debt (% of GDP) 2025 Highest since 1991 3.2% +15 bps 1Y Federal deficit (% of GDP) 2025 Least negative since 2022 -5.8% +43 bps 1Y Credit-card delinquencies Q2-2026 Lowest since Q2-2023 2.9% -19 bps 1Y